AI Geopolitical Scenario Engine
with Zero Hallucinations
Graph-constrained LLM agents model sanctions, conflicts, and disasters with 100% traceability and Brier score 0.0174.
Trusted by think tanks, defense consultancies, and policy units
Validated on Real Geopolitical Events
Tested on 10 independent historical cases spanning 2011-2022, covering sanctions, conflicts, and regional crises across all continents.
Event Type Coverage: Bilateral sanctions, regional blocs (GCC, ASEAN, ECOWAS), G7 multilateral, UN Security Council, secondary sanctions, and military intervention.
The Problem with Current Geopolitical Forecasting
Subjective Analyst Scores
Expert forecasts lack quantitative validation. No Brier scores, no backtesting, no systematic improvement.
Black-Box ML Models
Neural networks produce predictions without explanations. Decision-makers can't trust what they can't understand.
LLM Hallucinations
Free-form LLM generation invents "facts" about country positions, trade flows, and historical precedents.
The GeoMiro Solution: Graph-Constrained LLM Agents
Observable State Vectors
Countries = verifiable metrics (GDP, trade flows, alliances). No personality traits, no narratives without provenance.
Constrained Action Space
LLMs explain choices between pre-calculated graph options. No free-form generation = zero hallucinations.
Brier-Validated Predictions
Every scenario is backtested on historical cases. Brier score 0.0174 (6× better than deterministic baseline).
How It Works
- 1Define Scenario: USA → China semiconductor export controls, or Iran closes Strait of Hormuz.
- 2Sparse Activation: Focal point detection identifies 12-15 affected countries (not all 196).
- 3Graph Constraints: For each country, calculate options from trade dependencies, alliance chains, fiscal space.
- 4LLM Reasoning: Claude Sonnet 4.6 explains which option is most likely, citing graph data sources.
- 5Validation: ContextProof verifies claims. Brier score tracks prediction accuracy.
Who Uses GeoMiro?
Designed for organizations that make high-stakes decisions based on geopolitical forecasts.
Think Tanks & Research Institutes
Model sanctions scenarios for policy briefs. Validate coalition formation predictions with Brier scores.
- ▸RAND: Russia-Ukraine escalation pathways
- ▸CSIS: Iran nuclear deal collapse scenarios
- ▸Brookings: Taiwan Strait military intervention modeling
Defense Consultancies
Wargame geopolitical crises. Predict which countries join coalitions under different threat levels.
- ▸NATO Article 5 activation scenarios
- ▸South China Sea conflict escalation modeling
- ▸Middle East regional security architecture stress tests
Government Policy Units
Scenario planning for foreign policy decisions. Quantify risks of multilateral sanctions vs bilateral approaches.
- ▸UK Foreign Office: Brexit trade coalition predictions
- ▸EU Commission: Energy embargo impact modeling
- ▸US State Dept: Secondary sanctions effectiveness analysis
Enterprise Risk Assessment
Model geopolitical shocks affecting supply chains. Predict trade route disruptions and sanctions exposure.
- ▸Semiconductor supply chain resilience (Taiwan risk)
- ▸Oil price shock scenarios (Hormuz closure)
- ▸Export control compliance modeling (China tech)
Common Thread
All use cases require quantitative validation (Brier scores), evidence traceability (100% citations), and zero hallucinations (constrained action space). Traditional forecasting tools fail at least one of these.
How GeoMiro Achieves 0% Hallucinations
Three architectural pillars ensure every prediction is grounded in verifiable data.
1. State Vectors
Countries = observable metrics (GDP, trade flows, alliances, fiscal space). No personality traits. All parameters derived from World Bank, UN Comtrade, and GDELT.
2. Constrained Actions
LLM doesn't "invent" country behavior. It explains choice between pre-calculated graph options (trade dependencies, alliance chains). No free-form generation.
3. ContextProof Gate
Every claim is verified against graph sources. If a prediction cites "45% trade dependency," ContextProof checks the graph. Claims without sources are blocked.
Validation Pipeline
Deterministic graph traversal (trade dependencies, alliance chains). Brier score on 10 historical cases: 0.3229.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 explains choice between constrained options. Brier score on same 10 cases: 0.0174 (94.6% improvement).
If LLM Brier score is NOT 15-20% better than baseline → agents add no value. We would not have launched if this happened.
10 independent cases across different event types (sanctions, blocs, UN, military). Average improvement: 88.2%.
📄 Transparency: Full methodology, historical validation results, and backtesting code available upon pilot signup.
Pilot Pricing
Start with a 3-month pilot. No long-term commitment. Validate GeoMiro on your real scenarios before scaling.
Research Pilot
For think tanks and academic research
- ✓10 custom scenario runs per month
- ✓Historical validation reports
- ✓Brier-validated predictions
- ✓Email support (48h response)
- ✓Export to PDF/JSON
- ✓Access to 2011-2024 historical data
Enterprise Pilot
For defense consultancies and policy units
- ✓30 custom scenario runs per month
- ✓Weekly strategy syncs
- ✓Priority support (24h response)
- ✓Custom event types (cyber, climate, trade wars)
- ✓Multi-scenario comparison dashboards
- ✓Integration with internal tools (API)
- ✓White-label reports
Custom
For government agencies and large organizations
- ✓Unlimited scenario runs
- ✓Dedicated account manager
- ✓Custom data integrations (ACLED, EM-DAT)
- ✓On-premises deployment available
- ✓SLA guarantees
- ✓Training workshops for internal teams
- ✓Priority feature development
All pilots include: 0% hallucination guarantee, 100% evidence traceability, and Brier score validation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions from think tanks, defense consultancies, and policy units.
How is GeoMiro different from traditional geopolitical forecasting?
+What does "0% hallucinations" mean?
+How do you validate predictions on historical events?
+Can GeoMiro predict the future?
+What data sources do you use?
+How long does a scenario take to run?
+Have more questions? Get in touch →
Ready to Model Your Scenarios?
Request a demo or start a pilot. We'll walk you through how GeoMiro can validate your geopolitical assumptions with Brier-scored predictions.
Prefer email? Reach us directly at hello@geomiro.com